Understanding what really determines a country's capacity
Introduction
What does it mean to be a European power today?
The question seems simple only until you try to answer it seriously, because in the 21st-century international system, a state's power no longer coincides with a single variable; it...
Scope: Russian Geran-4 one-way attack UAV development, recovered-system exploitation, component provenance, Alabuga production, sanctions exposure and defensive implications, with evidence reviewed through 28 September 2026.
1. Bottom Line Up Front
Ukraine has obtained a surviving Geran-4 sufficiently intact for detailed examination, although the reviewed primary record...
Scope: Arabian Peninsula, Persian Gulf littoral, Red Sea maritime corridor, and Levant; evaluating Riyadh's defense posture, multi-axis proxy interdiction, and external balancing partnerships through the 2026–2031 forecast horizon.
Executive Summary
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia confronts a compound security architecture stress rather than an irreversible strategic...
Scope: This assessment examines the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a strategic actor from 2006 to 19 September 2026, with particular emphasis on the institutional transformation since 2015, the interaction among political authority, security policy, energy, sovereign capital, defence industrialisation and external partnerships, and...
This assessment evaluates the emergent, non-linear risks of multi-agent systems and agentic swarms across global regulatory, cybersecurity, and strategic domains over a five-year horizon, testing the sufficiency of component-oriented governance frameworks.
Current governance frameworks (EU AI Act, NIST AI RMF) are component-oriented and structurally blind...
Scope: This assessment examines Europe, the United States, Russia, China, Japan and the Gulf-facing geopolitical system from the post-war period to September 2026, with particular attention to migration and Islam in Europe, changing definitions of “the West,” the strategic role of the United States,...
